U.S. GDP Data Misses Expectations, Silver Safe-Haven Appeal Emerges

On July 29, 2026, the U.S. Commerce Department released its Q2 GDP preliminary, showing an annualized quarterly growth of 1.8%, below the expected 2.2% and the previous 2.4%. After the data, the dollar index briefly plummeted to near 103.2, while gold and silver surged. COMEX silver futures' main contract briefly broke above $28.5 per ounce, gaining over 2%. Singapore's silver spot market followed, closing at $28.3 per ounce (approx. $0.91 per gram), a near two-week high.

Local Market: Off-Season Not So Slow, Jewelers Stock Up Early

A precious metals dealer in Singapore revealed that despite July being a typically slow season for jewelry consumption, jewelers have begun increasing silver purchases in anticipation of the H2 wedding peak season. Data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore shows silver imports rose 12% month-on-month in June to 45 tons, the second-highest monthly volume this year. Market participants note that silver's dual industrial and safe-haven attributes make it more attractive after the recent price pullback.

U.S. Session Catalyst: Economic Slowdown Fears Intensify

The disappointing U.S. GDP data, combined with previously weak retail sales and manufacturing PMI, has fueled concerns about an economic slowdown. The FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a September rate cut rising to 75% from 60% a week earlier. Rate-cut expectations lower real yields, benefiting non-yielding assets like silver. Additionally, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, with funds flowing from risk assets into precious metals ETFs. The world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, saw its holdings increase by 87 tons to 14,520 tons, a one-month high.

Singapore Local Supply and Demand Analysis

As Asia's precious metals trading hub, Singapore's silver spot prices closely track international trends. The premium on local major silver bars remains at $0.5-0.8 per ounce, flat from last week. Notably, open interest in Singapore silver futures (SGX Silver Futures) increased 5% from last week, indicating institutional investor optimism. Local research firm Xindi Precious Metals believes that short-term silver prices will consolidate around $28, and if the $28.8 resistance is breached, the $29 level could be tested.

Gold-Silver Ratio Repair Opportunity

The current gold-silver ratio stands at approximately 84:1, above the historical average of 60:1. Historically, silver tends to underperform gold in early recession phases but often catches up later as industrial demand recovers. With the Fed's rate-cutting cycle approaching, once manufacturing recovery signals emerge, silver shows greater elasticity. Investors are advised to watch positions in Singapore silver ETFs (e.g., SPDR Gold Shares also offers silver products) and SGX silver futures for adjustment opportunities.

Risk Warnings

  • If subsequent U.S. economic data such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations, it may dampen rate-cut expectations.
  • Local physical silver liquidity in Singapore may be low during the off-season; watch bid-ask spreads.
  • Silver's industrial demand is affected by global trade conditions; monitor closely.

Overall, the U.S. session catalyst (GDP data) is the main short-term driver for silver's rally, while local stocking demand in Singapore provides a floor. Investors should closely follow this week's U.S. PCE data and Fed officials' speeches to adjust positions flexibly.