On September 17, 2026, the Singapore precious metals market reached a critical juncture for holding data. As the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting approached, market expectations for policy shifts rose, compounded by increased volatility in the US Dollar Index and recurring geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East situation). This led to significant changes in the local precious metals holding structure in Singapore: institutional funds increased their holdings of gold against the trend, while silver holdings showed a polarized pattern. This article deeply analyzes the new trends in Singapore's precious metals holdings by utilizing data from the "Holding Target Monitoring Screen" system, combined with local supply and demand and policy dynamics, revealing the market logic behind capital flows.
I. Gold Holdings: Institutional Counter-Trend Accumulation Signals Long-Term Capital Deployment
Recently, the Singapore gold market has seen concentrated deployment of institutional capital. Data from the "Monitoring Screen" system shows that as of September 15, the holdings of local gold ETFs (such as SGX Gold ETF) in Singapore increased by approximately 3.2 tons compared to the end of August, reaching a high level for the corresponding period. This increase aligns with the overall trend of global gold ETFs, but the particularity of the Singapore market is that institutional accumulation focuses more on local supply and demand and policy factors.
1. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Rising Expectations for Rate Cuts Highlight Gold's Safe-Haven Attribute
Before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, expectations for a rate cut rose from 50% in August to over 70%. Although US inflation data in August was still above target, the downward trend in core inflation led the market to believe that the Federal Reserve might begin a rate-cutting cycle in September. For institutions, a rate cut means a decrease in real interest rates and a lower holding cost for gold, while safe-haven demand increases—especially against the backdrop of geopolitical risks (such as tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia), leading to a reassessment of gold's value as a "safe-haven asset."
2. Local Singapore Demand: Gold Vault Storage Reaches Record High, Supported by Physical Demand
As a major global gold trading center, local physical gold demand in Singapore remains robust. According to data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), gold storage in Singapore vaults reached 1,250 tons by the end of August, an 8.5% increase from the same period last year, setting a record high. This growth is mainly driven by two factors: inventory replenishment by local jewelers and the allocation needs of institutional investors for physical gold. While institutions are increasing their holdings of gold ETFs, they are also increasing physical gold holdings through vault storage to cope with potential liquidity risks.
3. Institutional Deployment Logic: Long-Term Capital Counter-Trend Accumulation to Diversify Portfolio Risk
From the holding structure, the share of institutions in Singapore's gold holdings increased from 65% in August to 70%, while the share of retail investors decreased from 35% to 30%. The counter-trend accumulation by institutional funds reflects their recognition of gold's long-term value. On one hand, gold has a low correlation with stocks and bonds, effectively diversifying portfolio risk; on the other hand, as global central banks (such as the Monetary Authority of Singapore) increase their gold reserves (currently at 5%), gold's "monetary attribute" is strengthened, and institutions view it as a tool to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
II. Silver Holdings: Intensifying Polarization, A Tug-of-War Between Industrial and Safe-Haven Demand
Unlike gold, Singapore's silver holdings show a distinct polarized pattern. As of September 15, the holdings of Singapore silver ETFs (such as SGX Silver ETF) decreased by approximately 1.8 tons compared to the end of August, and the share of institutional holdings increased from 60% to 68%, while the share of retail holdings decreased from 40% to 32%.
1. Industrial Demand: Electronics Sector Recovery Supports Long-Term Silver Demand
Industrial demand accounts for approximately 60% of silver's demand and is a key factor influencing its holdings. Recently, there has been a noticeable recovery in the Singaporean electronics industry (such as semiconductors and photovoltaics), with global electronic component orders increasing by 5.2% compared to August, driving up silver's industrial demand. While institutions have reduced their holdings of silver ETFs, they have increased allocations to industrial uses of silver, such as through futures contracts or spot holdings, to capture price increases driven by industrial demand.
2. Hedging Demand: Geopolitical Risks Rise, but Weak Dollar Limits Gains
Geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East situation) have increased silver's hedging demand, but the volatility of the US Dollar Index has limited its gains. Since September, the US Dollar Index has fallen from 102.5 to 101.2, providing support to silver prices. However, institutions believe that silver's hedging characteristics are weaker than gold's, leading them to prefer reducing silver ETF holdings and increasing gold holdings. Retail investors, due to the high volatility of silver prices, have chosen to reduce positions and wait.
3. Local Supply and Demand in Singapore: Jewelry Consumption Rebounds, but Inventory Pressure Appears
The Singaporean jewelry market experienced a peak consumption season in September (such as the Mid-Autumn Festival), with silver jewelry demand increasing by 10% compared to August. However, local silver inventory increased by 15% compared to August, putting downward pressure on prices. While institutions reduced silver ETF holdings, they increased inventory replenishment of silver jewelry to meet peak season demand. Retail investors, facing inventory pressure, reduced their holdings, leading to a decrease in silver holdings proportion.
III. Local Singapore Market: Linkage Effect of Policy and Supply and Demand
Changes in the precious metals market holdings in Singapore are not only influenced by global factors but are also closely related to local policies and supply and demand.
1. Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Policy: Gold Reserve Adjustment Strengthens Financial Safety Net
The MAS recently announced an increase in the proportion of gold reserves from 4.5% to 5%. Although this adjustment is not large, it sends a clear signal—the importance of gold as a financial safety net is increasing. Institutions, when increasing their gold holdings, have also taken this policy change into account, believing that the Singaporean government will support the development of the gold market, thus increasing their gold allocations.
2. Singapore Exchange (SGX) Trading Mechanism: Increased Holding Transparency, Institutional Market Dominance
The launch of the SGX "Smart Monitoring Screen" system has improved the transparency of precious metals holdings, allowing institutions to more accurately judge market trends. Data shows that the institutional holding proportion increased from 60% before the system launch to 70%, while the retail proportion decreased from 40% to 30%. This change indicates that institutions are leveraging the advantage of transparency to dominate market trends, while retail investors are reducing positions due to information asymmetry.
3. Local Supply and Demand Balance: Gold Shortage, Silver Oversupply
The Singaporean gold market exhibits a shortage pattern, with gold imports increasing by 12% in August compared to July, while exports only increased by 5%, leading to a decrease in inventory. Institutions, when increasing gold holdings, have considered the supply and demand balance, believing that gold prices still have room to rise. In contrast, the silver market shows an oversupply, with silver imports increasing by 8% in August compared to July, while exports increased by 15%, leading to an increase in inventory, causing institutions to reduce silver ETF holdings.
IV. Trend Outlook and Investment Recommendations
Overall, the recent trends in Singapore's precious metal holdings reflect market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies, geopolitics, and local supply and demand. In the future, gold holdings may continue to increase, with institutions leading the market trend; while silver holdings may remain differentiated, and the tug-of-war between industrial demand and safe-haven demand will persist.
1. Gold: Long-term allocation value stands out; pay attention to Federal Reserve policy movements
For investors, the long-term allocation value of gold remains prominent. It is recommended to monitor the results of the September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting; if expectations of an interest rate cut heat up, gold prices may rise further. At the same time, local physical gold demand in Singapore (such as vault storage and jewelry consumption) will also support gold prices, and investors are advised to increase their gold allocation ratio.
2. Silver: Short-term volatility intensifies; pay attention to the recovery of industrial demand
Short-term volatility in silver may intensify. Investors are advised to pay attention to the recovery of industrial demand (such as the electronics industry). If industrial demand continues to grow, silver prices may rebound; if the US dollar weakens, safe-haven demand for silver may increase, but risks from inventory pressure must be noted. Investors are advised to remain cautious with silver holdings and avoid excessive chasing of prices.
3. Local Singapore Market: Pay attention to policy and supply-demand changes
Changes in local Singapore market policies (such as the Monetary Authority of Singapore's gold reserve adjustments) and supply and demand (such as vault storage and jewelry consumption) will affect the trend of precious metal holdings. Investors are advised to monitor data updates from the Singapore Exchange's "Smart Watch" system and adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.
