On August 6th, during Asian trading hours, the international precious metals market maintained a strong trend. Spot gold rose by 1% to $4285.69 per ounce, reaching a seven-week high since June 18th, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains; New York futures gold simultaneously climbed 0.9% to $4345.50. In resonance with the price action, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings increase for the second consecutive trading day, accumulating nearly 9 tons over two days; whereas the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained flat for two consecutive days after reducing its holdings by 6.41 tons on August 4th. This rare divergence in gold and silver ETF holdings has become the most noteworthy structural signal in the August precious metals market.
Data Review: SPDR Gold ETF Continues to Accumulate, Sweeping Nearly 9 Tons in Two Days
According to the latest disclosed holdings data, as of August 5th, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings stood at 1014.148 tons, an increase of 4.851 tons from the previous trading day; and on August 4th, the ETF had already increased by 3.423 tons to 1009.297 tons. The cumulative net increase over two trading days was approximately 8.27 tons, a pace of accumulation not frequently seen in the past year, indicating that the speed of capital inflow into gold is accelerating.
SPDR Gold Trust is the world's largest and most liquid gold ETF, and changes in its holdings are long regarded as a "vote" from institutional funds and long-term allocation players regarding the medium-term direction of gold prices. This continuous accumulation, coinciding with gold prices breaking above $4280 and setting a seven-week high, suggests that previously cautious allocative funds are accelerating their entry. In terms of trading rhythm, ETF accumulation usually lags behind the price initiation, and this type of "confirmation buying" often implies an increased probability of trend continuation.
It is worth noting that SPDR's accumulation is not an isolated event. Concurrently, the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reduced its holdings by 6.41 tons to 15130.82 tons on August 4th, and maintained 15130.82 tons on August 5th. Spot silver rose by 0.4% on August 6th to $62.34/ounce, platinum rose by 0.8% to $1750.15, and palladium rose by 1% to $1377.00. The "standstill" in silver ETF holdings against the rising silver price shows a subtle divergence, indicating a clear shift in preference among precious metals.
Deconstruction of Drivers: Triple Resonance of Weak Dollar, Employment Data, and Geopolitical Hedging
The driving logic behind this round of gold price increases is quite clear: weaker-than-expected US labor market data cooled market expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve, causing both the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields to weaken, which directly reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset; simultaneously, the hedging demand generated by the recurring geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to support gold prices. During trading on August 5th, spot gold briefly surged by nearly $170 to $4247/ounce, before rising further, stimulated by news of progress in the Strait's navigation. Gabelli Gold Fund (GOLDX) co-manager Chris Mancini's analysis is highly valuable. In his view, gold is fundamentally a monetary asset rather than a cyclical commodity, and the structural factors supporting its long-term upward trend—namely, prolonged geopolitical tensions, continuously rising global public debt, deepening de-dollarization trends, and declining trust in fiat currencies—remain intact. He also pointed out that after gold prices stabilized above $4000, most gold mining stocks are still trading at a Price-to-Earnings ratio of only 10 to 11 times. While industry profits and cash flows are at historical highs, valuations have not kept pace, highlighting the investment value of the sector.
Interpretation: The Capital Logic Behind the Divergence in Gold and Silver Holdings
The increase in ETF holdings of gold and the decrease in silver essentially reflect the divergence of the driving factors of these two asset classes.
Gold is primarily driven by financial attributes: Falling real interest rates and hedging demand form the core support, leading allocation funds to continuously increase positions against the backdrop of weakening dollar credibility. The increase in ETF holdings is a direct reflection of this logic.
Silver also has industrial attributes: Its demand is closely linked to the global manufacturing cycle and green applications like photovoltaics. After a rapid rise in silver prices, capital assessment regarding the slope of industrial demand recovery has become cautious, leading to profit-taking and wait-and-see behavior at the ETF level.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Signal: In a combination where gold is strong and silver is relatively weak, the gold-to-silver ratio remains high. Historically, when this ratio hovers at critical thresholds, it is often accompanied by a catch-up rally or correction in silver, which warrants continuous tracking.
Singapore Perspective: Domestic Demand Divergence, Parallel to Central Bank Gold Purchases and Infrastructure Upgrades
Focusing on the local Singapore market, the World Gold Council's (WGC) Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends report shows that investment demand for gold bars and coins in Singapore increased by 6% year-on-year in Q2. However, the cumulative purchase volume in the first half of the year was only 5.8 tons, ranking last among the five data-reporting economies in Southeast Asia. Specifically, Q2 saw a decline to 2.3 tons from 3.5 tons in Q1. In comparison, Indonesia purchased 38.1 tons, Thailand 20.9 tons, Vietnam 15.6 tons, and Malaysia 6.3 tons in the first half of the year. Overall, Southeast Asia's gold bar and coin sales reached 36.7 tons in Q2, a 7.6% year-on-year increase, which contrasts sharply with the weak performance of 307.1 tons globally in Q2, a 3% year-on-year decline.
High gold prices have exerted some restraint on local retail physical purchases in Singapore, but institutional and official actions have been exceptionally active: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) net purchased approximately 10 tons of gold in the first half of the year, ranking among the major global central bank buyers. Global central banks net purchased over 289 tons in Q2, setting a historical high for the period, with countries like Poland and China continuously increasing their holdings. Concurrently, MAS announced the removal of the 5% holding limit for physical precious metals investments by funds and family offices starting August 1st and plans to offer gold custody services to foreign central banks starting in October. The Singapore Exchange (SGX) will establish a local Loco Singapore over-the-counter gold clearing system before the end of the year, with DBS Bank, JPMorgan Chase, and Deutsche Bank among the first clearing members. This series of initiatives indicates that Singapore is upgrading from a regional gold trading center to an end-to-end hub encompassing custody, clearing, and warehousing. For investors, this means that the depth and tool richness of the local precious metals market will continue to improve, and the availability and transparency of cross-market holdings data will also enhance, providing richer ground for "Smart Monitoring Screen" style position tracking.
Market Outlook: A Clear Short-Term Bullish Pattern, Beware of Policy Variables
Overall, the continuous accumulation of SPDR Gold ETFs and the gold price breaking a seven-week high mutually confirm a relatively clear short-term bullish pattern; however, the stagnation in silver ETF holdings reminds us that internal fund divergence among precious metals still exists. If US inflation data rebounds, forcing the Federal Reserve to pivot back to a hawkish stance, the gold price may face profit-taking pressure after a rapid ascent; conversely, if employment and inflation data continue to weaken, gold and silver are likely to experience a rotation trend where gold rises and silver catches up.
For Singaporean investors, while tracking the holdings of overseas ETFs such as SPDR and iShares, it is also worthwhile to monitor the changes in funds for local gold futures and silver contracts on the Singapore Exchange. Cross-market and cross-commodity holdings data often reveal the true intentions of funds better than a single indicator. The Smart Monitoring Screen will continuously track every subtle change in the structure of local precious metals holdings in Singapore from a data review perspective, providing investors with timely and transparent position insights.
